How does trend forecasting work?

We are able to forecast the future behaviour of fashion trends up to 24 months in advance. We can do it by using a mix of historical data, advanced algorithms, and deep learning.

This is how it works:

1. We start with the past
   For each trend, we gather up to 10 years of historical data, including all associated social media posts and extra signals relevant to its evolution.

2. We run multiple models
   We apply five different statistical models, along with our proprietary deep learning model, to predict how the trend is likely to evolve over the next year.

3. We combine the results
   Finally, we use an ensembling technique (called Fforma) to combine the outputs of all models into a single, optimized forecast.

What decides a trend’s forecast horizon?

How far ahead we can forecast a trend depends on how visible it is on social media. The more posts we see about a trend, the further ahead we can predict it reliably.

Each level of insight needs a minimum number of posts per week:

• Trend metrics → the trend appears in the platform with its history and key metrics

• 12-month forecast → needs a higher minimum

• 24-month forecast → needs the highest minimum, because the further ahead we predict, the more data we need to keep the forecast reliable

What it means for a trend you're looking at

• No 24-month forecast → the trend is visible enough to forecast the next 12 months, but not yet two years ahead

• History but no forecast → the trend is still too niche on social media for a reliable prediction

• Trend not available → there aren't enough posts yet to show reliable metrics. For early signals our technology can't detect yet, check the Watchlist in Fashion Narratives.

Why a forecast can show in one view and not another

Visibility is checked separately for each geography and each consumer segment:

• Geographies: Fringe Cowboy Boots can have a full 24-month forecast in the United States but only history in the Middle East

• Segments: a trend can have a forecast for the General Population but not in In-Depth Segment Analysis for Running, because segments are smaller audiences

Visibility is reassessed with each monthly data update. As a trend gains visibility, it can unlock a longer forecast.

For questions about a specific trend, reach out to your Account Manager.